The Keystone Speculator

The SPX 2-hour chart peaked out with neggie d and fell on that hourly basis days ago but as was previously described with charts, the daily chart still experienced indications that were long and strong. Therefore, despite the weakness in the VST, you understood price would want to keep coming back for another high on the daily basis and it does up.

In truth there are three new highs over the last few days. Each right time stocks and shares drop, President Trump is quick to state the US-China trade discussions ‘re going well or one of the central bankers coo dovish shades. The central bankers are the market. Stocks are usually bullish moving into and through the Fed meetings (over 80% of that time period) so the buoyancy in shares is not surprising yesterday afternoon. The theory for this daily chart was to wait for the long and strong MACD line to flatten into negative divergence and roll over which signals the near-term top. Remember, the low CPCE and CPC put/call ratios continue to not be rectified as well as the raised NYMO.

These charts scream continued complacency and insufficient fear so investors likely have to be slapped in the face again. The daily chart is finally establishing for the neggie d smackdown–as long as the MACD range rolls over now. The price move forward depends on that MACD line. If you squint, it looks flat but it could have a locks of upside momo then. That could give price the last bit of fumes to make another high say, tomorrow but that should be all she wrote. Perhaps the bears can finally collect some downside momo with the daily chart moving into negative divergence. The NYMO and put/call mojo should activate slapping the SPX lower.

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  • 27 June 2014 at 11:51

For the bulls that are long that chased the upside last night, you want to see that MACD series to keep sloping higher. Also, the RSI never reached overbot territory so the bulls can hope for some type of very good news that will pop it somewhat and that will lengthen the market top another 2 or 3 days.

70% overbot territory. The SPX also didn’t quite touch that upper standard deviation series so that must be left on the table for the bulls. For the bears, the negative divergence with the indicators says price is operating out of gas and will fall with this daily basis. The 20 and 50-day MA’s at 2609-2611 are in play as support. The rising wedge is ominous since these patterns usually lead to a bloody mess and carnage.

The new moon peaks for the month on Monday at 4 PM EST therefore the expectation would be for a smooth currency markets from Friday through Monday. The SPX is peaking from the daily basis and ready to roll over barring any positive news event. The weekly chart, however, remains strong and long.