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Other companies sell recently issued stocks to Peter in order to pay dividends to Paul. Berkshire continues to retain its earnings for offensive, not defensive or obligatory, reasons. However in no chance are we immune from the pressures that escalating passive results exert on equity capital. We continue to clear the crossbar of after-tax passive return – but barely. What Would He Now Say? Buffett said that stocks should have higher returns than passive, fixed investments. Actually, he said that that is the economic justification for buying stocks. He didn’t say that stock comes back should equal fixed income investment results; that it ought to be higher just.
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So we can see the earning produce – bond yield parity model as the top limit of currency markets valuation. According to this idea the stock market would have to get right up to 30-40x p/e (using the pretax U.S. That’s silly. I’ve seen charts showing the differential between revenue yield and interest rates showing how relatively attractive stocks and shares are.
Those charts do imply stocks can get to 30-40x p/e and I certainly wish stocks don’t get up there. It probably shows more how expensive bonds are. Buffett has said that bonds are in a large bubble and it is unsustainable (even though I still suspect, because of my having watched Japan post-bubble, that rates will remain a lot lower for considerably longer than most people think).
So if bond rates are unnaturally low due to central bank activity, what is a more natural level of interest levels? What’s a post with this blog lacking any off-topic tangent? Talking about interest rates, one of the best no-brainers for 2014 was that rates of interest would rise credited to “tapering”. The Fed has been buying truckloads of treasuries every month for so long, if they reduced their purchases interest rates shall go up. Simple demand and supply. It is the easiest trade in the world. You would need to be stupid never to understand that. I recall a very similar trade when people thought treasuries would crash at the end of QE1 (or QE2, I can’t keep monitor).
The no-brainer trade then was the same; everyone knew that the Fed would stop buying bonds (to the precise date), and everyone knew that this would disrupt demand and supply, and it was apparent that bonds needed to decline dramatically. Among my early posts on this blog was about gold (Ungold), and gold was a no-brainer too in 2011 back. If the economy recovers, inflation would soar and so would gold.
5,000. Heads I win, tails you lose. Where Should INTEREST LEVELS Be? So then, let’s see where interest rates would be on a normalized basis. If inflation is 2.0%, then your Fed Funds rate should be around 4.7%. Think about the yield curve? The spread between the 10-season treasury rate and Fed Funds rate since 1954 was 1% or so.