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Fantex views itself as a brand constructor for the sports athletes who choose it. That could imply that a few of the earnings collected from the sportsman will be spent in seeking to increase earnings in the future, primarily from endorsements. There are no guarantees, though, that this trade off is a positive one. Thus, it is possible that Fantex will expend 20%, 30% or even 50% of Foster’s income, trying to increase his marketability, without discernible influence on endorsement earnings. One of the stranger features of the Arian Foster stock is that investors in the stock may be asked to bear deficits incurred by Fantex on other sportsmen that it may have in its collection.
Thus, if Fantex makes a big in advance investment in a potential superstar (Andrew Luck) and that star suffers a lifetime career ending injury, traders in the Foster stock usually takes a strike. The type of tracking stock is that holders of the stock are onlookers when it comes to corporate governance, given that they have no power to change or influence managers even.
This is going to be one factor on two levels. There is absolutely no such compensating state with monitoring stock. If you are a investor who chooses to buy Arian Foster monitoring stock, there is one final risk that has to enter into the picture. Since there is absolutely no ready market (yet) for these shares, it might be difficult and expensive to liquidate these purchases. In valuation, that is generally a reason for either charging a “illiquidity premium” in your discount rate (increasing the discount rate) or attaching an “illiquidity discount” to the worthiness.
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The extent of the result depends upon how much you value liquidity as an trader and exactly how easy/difficult it is to trade these shares. Arian Foster tracking stock: Since this is actually the first set of tracking stock, I’ll assume that there surely is substantial illiquidity risk. That risk may decline over time as more athletes get listed and the Fantex trading market becomes more liquid, but neither is a reality yet. To value the claim on Arian Foster’s profits, I started by forecasting aggregate revenue to Arian Foster.
Expected using time: I will assume that Foster will play for nine more years, before age of 36, at which point both his contract income and his endorsement income shall end. 5.875 million a year. every year 2 million in bonuses, a third of his overall potential reward payments around.
4 million a year, assuming that his age group (31) and the production decline that is included with age group with affect his gaining power. a yr for the others of his career 1 million. Player fines/penalties: Given Foster’s clean history and the position he plays, I’ll assume no dollar penalties will be imposed on his during his lifetime.
687,750 (though some of it is contingent on performance). I’ll assume that there is substantial development potential (10% annual growth rate) in this income. To value the cash flows, I have to make assumptions about default and player risk. For player risk, I will assume that there is a 5% probability of a lifetime career ending injury each year, resulting in cumulative probabilities that will increase over time (to 37% by the last year).
For default risk, I am going to suppose that Arian Foster’s history & desire to have commercial success will keep default risk low (a default spread of just one 1.50% and a discount rate of 4.1%). will be added to the chance free rate. 10.06 million (before accounting for expenditures and damage probabilities). 10 million to get these promises, this appears like a break deal for both sides of the deal even, with Arian Foster having the slight advantage.