Should budget in a relationship (or couple that lives collectively) be individual or joint? Should funds in a relationship (or couple that lives jointly) be split or joint? Both have disadvantages and advantages, and every romantic relationship is unique. I don’t believe there’s a one size fits all answer. Personally, we maintain individual checking and investment accounts. We have a joint checking account. AskMen: the premier spot to ask arbitrary strangers for horrible dating advice, but ideally from the male perspective. And don’t be an asshole.
Just to get right down to neutral that is where they need to be. That’s probably what they will be doing – whether or not they get a downturn. That is costed into the futures curve already. … I am certainly lining up more dovishly than hawkishly. The existing GDP number is combined pretty.
U.S. GDP development fell for an annual rate of 2.1% in the next one fourth from 3.1% in the first one fourth. It was greatly affected of course by the 70% of the GDP pie called the consumer, that was at a 4 up.3% annual rate. Obviously, you could see that in the strong numbers that we’ve received lately in conditions of revolving and non-revolving consumer credit.
So the tenor behind what occurred on the buyer part leaves me relatively unimpressed. And then you have a look at some of the other components of the report. Real exports are down 5.2% in annual rate and, for the very first time in 3 years, capital spending, business investment was -0.6%. Using the dramatic downturn in mortgage rates Even, all the heavy lifting that the bond market did to get mortgage rates down, here we have home investment and casing at negative at -1.5%.
Housing in the GDP accounts has contracted now for six consecutive quarters. Weniger: Housing is decidedly weakened in places like Manhattan, San Francisco. It is almost a follow-on to what you have seen in Sydney and Melbourne. Do you think that could finish up being one particular next developments that acts as a black cloud over generalized sentiment? Rosenberg: What concerns me is not the housing market. I believe at some true point we will level off in the next couple of quarters. And it’s not necessarily consumer spending, which I would make reference to as a low quality 4.3% in consumer spending. It’s the drawdown in the savings rate.
The reality is that income was only up 2.5%, which isn’t awful, but it shows you the extent to which usage growth has outpaced real income growth. What catches my attention is the decline running a business spending here. My thesis all along has been that will be a capital spending-led recession.
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The trade tensions and tariffs are an extra way to obtain aggravation. I always say after a Fed easing routine, “Follow the bubble.” Then, of course, when you get the Fed tensing cycle, you find that the bubble will burst or you see the helium emerge from it. The bubble this time around is within corporate balance sheets, not household balance sheets. There’s a whole host of explanations why capital spending is weakening. A whole lot of it involves the overall global uncertainty down, politically and economically. It is also possible that for the first time in five years we will have a tsunami of corporate debt refinancing.
We will see lots of money flows being diverted to personal debt service even under the gradual industry environment and from capital spending. We’ve seen this in previous business cycles. Lower capital spending will lead to declines in employment or certainly weaker work conditions. We’ve seen that … look at the Jolt study recently.
Professor Siegel is right, the jobless promises numbers were suprisingly low. Nobody desires to fire personnel because we don’t have any skill left in the labor pool, and that means you want to hang on to your very best talent. But the hiring rate materially is slowing down. One more thing that caught my eye in the latest ADP number is that small company employment has contracted now for every of the past two months. Small business employment is a great leading signal for the labor market and the economy.
That is beginning to move over. Jeremy Siegel: David, where do you think the neutral real Fed money rate is? Rosenberg: The question becomes, what is the primary inflation rate? So a lot of the CPI (consumer price index) and PCE (personal usage expenses) are imputed by the federal government statisticians. Siegel: I’ve been stating for a long period that one of the best phenomena of the last 10 years is the collapse of real interest rates, both on the long term and the short run.